Free Calculator

Trading Expectancy Calculator

Win rate alone doesn't determine profitability. Enter your strategy's numbers to find out whether you have a real mathematical edge.

Strategy Parameters

%
0%50%100%
$
$

Enter as positive number

Why win rate alone doesn't determine profit

A strategy that wins 70% of the time can still be a net loser if losses are large relative to wins. Conversely, a 40% win rate with a 3:1 payoff ratio is highly profitable. Expectancy captures both dimensions — it tells you the average dollar amount you make or lose per trade, which is the only number that predicts long-run performance regardless of win rate.

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Results

Win Rate

55.0%

of trades win

Loss Rate

45.0%

of trades lose

Expectancy / Trade

--

average profit per trade

Expected Total

--

over 100 trades

Break-Even Win

--

min avg win to profit

Payoff Ratio

--

avg win ÷ avg loss

Enter your average win and loss above to see results