Trading Expectancy
Calculator
Win rate alone doesn't determine profitability. Enter your strategy's numbers to find out whether you have a real mathematical edge.
Strategy Parameters
Enter as positive number
Why win rate alone doesn't determine profit
A strategy that wins 70% of the time can still be a net loser if losses are large relative to wins. Conversely, a 40% win rate with a 3:1 payoff ratio is highly profitable. Expectancy captures both dimensions — it tells you the average dollar amount you make or lose per trade, which is the only number that predicts long-run performance regardless of win rate.
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Win Rate
55.0%
of trades win
Loss Rate
45.0%
of trades lose
Expectancy / Trade
--
average profit per trade
Expected Total
--
over 100 trades
Break-Even Win
--
min avg win to profit
Payoff Ratio
--
avg win ÷ avg loss
Enter your average win and loss above to see results